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Surfline points to large SW groundswell due for WSG |
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Written by Surfers Village
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Tuesday, 19 October 2010 |
The swell will steadily build Tues/Wed (19th-20th) and top out Thurs/Fri (21st-22nd) with well overhead surf. At this point, solid swell will continue right through the weekend of the 23rd-24th as well.
TUESDAY 19th
SWELL/SURF: Long-period forerunners of a new SW groundswell slowly filling in. Look for knee-waist occasional chest high sets (2-4’ faces) in the morning, to waist-shoulder occasional head high sets (3-5’ faces) before dark.
WEDNESDAY 20th
SWELL/SURF: Solid SW groundswell steadily builds; from head high to 2’+ overhead waves (5-7’+ faces) in the morning, to double overhead+ sets (8-10’+ faces) showing over the afternoon.
THURSDAY 21st
SWELL/SURF: Large SW groundswell fills in further and tops out. Well overhead surf; sets will be in the double to triple overhead range (10-15’+ faces). Occasionally larger sets are likely to roll through.
FRIDAY 22nd
SWELL/SURF: Large/holding SW groundswell. Well overhead surf; sets will be in the double to triple overhead range (10-15’+ faces). Occasionally larger sets are likely to roll through.
WIND CONDITIONS: For the first days of the event (Tuesday the 19th through Friday the 22nd), high pressure centered offshore/west of Chile will extend into Southern Peru and maintain southerly flow along the coast. The mornings will start out with light South-SSE wind before becoming light-moderate into each afternoon and veering South-SSW.
SURF SUMMARY AND LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
A large/strong storm system has recently been sliding across the deep South Pacific (the wind-fetch is currently still intact over the central South Pacific). This storm has been and continues to pump out a solid SW groundswell (220-205 degrees) for Peru, due by the start of the event! Long-period forerunners of this swell, mixing with some local southerly windswell, will slowly fill in over Tuesday the 19th; from a slow start of knee-waist occasional chest high sets (2-4’ faces) in the morning, to waist-shoulder occasional head high sets (3-5’ faces) before dark.
The swell will start to really show itself on Wednesday the 20th with a steady build from head high to 2’+ overhead waves (5-7’+ faces) in the morning, to double overhead+ sets (8-10’+ faces) showing over the afternoon.
The swell will fill in further over Wednesday night and top out by Thursday the 21st with about 8-9’+ of deepwater swell, which will hold solid through at least Friday the 22nd. On Thursday and Friday, expect well overhead surf at both spots (Caballeros and Senoritas). Sets will be in the double to triple overhead range (10-15’+ faces).
Occasionally larger sets are likely to roll through. At this time, we expect large surf to continue right through the weekend of the 23rd and 24th, as another solid/reinforcing push of SW groundswell energy charges the coast (details below).
The same storm system discussed above is expected to regroup in the Southeast Pacific over this weekend, where it will maintain a strong wind-fetch for Peru. If things stay on track, then we're looking for solid, reinforcing SW shifting SSW groundswell (~220 shifting 190 degrees) to overlap with the SW swell described above.
This reinforcing energy looks like it will keep up about 7-8’+ of deepwater swell and well overhead surf (double to triple overhead sets, 10-15’ faces) through the weekend of the 23rd-24th, before starting to slowly fade the following week. Stay posted for Monday’s forecast update as we watch this storm/swell develop through the next 48hrs or so.
Looking further out; we’re watching for a new storm to spin out from under New Zealand this Sunday the 17th and track across the South Pacific over the first half of next week (18th-20th). Therefore, we may potentially see another SW groundswell arrive into Peru around the 26th-28th. At this time, this next possible swell is looking smaller than the swells discussed above, but still decent size. Keep in mind that this swell has not yet developed.
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